Research & Publications

My research focus on combine fieldwork with ecological and spatial modeling, ecosystem disturbance and resilience, forest biometry, soil and plant systems, water resources, biodiversity, as well as wildlife and habitat assessment.
The Research Experience section highlights projects where I have made active contributions through data acquisition, experimental design, data interpretation, and scientific writing.

Publications

Ongoing 2025

A Meta-Modeling Approach for High-Resolution Forest Fire Risk Projection in Nepal under Past, Present, and Future Climate Scenarios

Dhakal, M.
Targeting submission to a peer-reviewed journal
I am currently conducting an independent, nationwide research project that aims to predict forest fire risk across Nepal by building a robust meta-model framework using an ensemble of ten base models.
Preprint 2025

Forest Fire Risk Assessment using Machine Learning and Earth Observation Technique in Himalayan Regions: Insights from Rasuwa District, Nepal

Kunwar, S., Dhakal, M.*, Parajuli, A.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Forest fires are recurrent natural hazards threatening ecosystems, biodiversity, and nearby communities. This study developed an integrated approach combining fuzzy AHP with machine learning to create comprehensive fire risk maps for Nepal's CTML region.
Preprint 2025

How Will the Climate Change Shift the Suitable Area of Seven Woody Bamboo Species in Nepal?

Pokhrel, S., Neupane, P., Paudel, N., Dhakal, M., Lamichhane, P., Khadka. A.
Ecology and Evolution

This research explores how bamboo species distributions will shift under future climate scenarios using ensemble species distribution modeling, informing regional conservation strategies for these ecologically and economically important species.

Published 2024

Synergistic approaches in forest fire risk mapping using fuzzy AHP and machine learning models in the Chure Tarai Madhesh Landscape (CTML) of Nepal

Dhakal, M., Bhatta, B., Lamichhane, P., Parajulli, A.
Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

Forest fires are recurrent natural hazards threatening ecosystems, biodiversity, and nearby communities. This study developed an integrated approach combining fuzzy AHP with machine learning to create comprehensive fire risk maps for Nepal's CTML region.

Research Experiences

Red Panda Habitat Mapping

Gaurishankar Conservation Area (GCAP) 2024

Conducted GIS-based habitat suitability analysis for endangered Red Panda populations, integrating field surveys with remote sensing data to identify key conservation areas.

Species Distribution Modeling GIS Analysis Field Surveys
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Invasive Plants: Distribution and destruction

Annapurna Conservation Area (ACAP) 2025

Investigated the distribution and impacts of invasive plants through data-driven analysis in ACAP. Statistical analyses were applied to examine relationships between elevation, species density, and species richness.

Correlation and regression GIS Analysis Field Surveys
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